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Adverse Selection

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Adverse Selection

Due to differences in the information that buyers and sellers have, the efficient allocation of resources to the buy and sell market mechanism can be put out of kilter. And quality products can disappear from the market. A famous example of this is illustrated by the economist George Akerlof. He explains that care sale yards know best when it comes to whether or not a car has been in an accident or whether or not it will be have one. All the buyer has is the seller’s word, this is the assymetry of information. In this case the buyer will only purchase the vehicle for a lower price than the average between the cost of one thats been in an accident and one that hasn’t. The result is damaged vehicles are sold for more and quality vehicles are taken off the market by their owners. Due to the assymetry of information the used car market becomes flooded with damaged vehicles and quality vehicles decline and adverse selections are made.

Akerlof pointed out that quality assurances and brand chains or franchises peddled by car dealers rectify the information assymetry and they are giving back confidence to the customer. newsweek日本版1175号より

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_selection

We can apply this to iPhone apps that don’t stand out or sell well.
Price wars and apps that are just quick attempts at a few $$ are the norm and it’s difficult for high quality apps to get to the higher positions on the apple Top lists.
Customers rely heavily on those lists. There are various review sites around but their reliability is questionable. Potential buys look at those Top lists and purchase those apps because their on the list and therefor must be good. Review sites use affiliate programs and advertising to gain popularity and so of course review those apps that are in the Top lists or those that will almost definitely make it.
The point being, customers are getting a lot of information about products with questionable reputations.
You could call this, asymmetry of information.

.. I’m sure we’ve all experienced this.
Even though certain products are in the top lists, they live up to their net-wide reviews.

To combat this, we could consider quality assurance.
To examine quality, we first need to establish the “fairness” and “accuracy” ranges.

… As I was considering this, I realised there was such a system already in Facebook.
Living Social
Living Social appeared around spring and in 1 month went to 1,000,000 monthly active users. They cover not only iPhone apps, but cd’s, books and just about everything. It’s easy to operate, you can put it in your Facebook profile and people very quickly began categorising their collections. On a large social network, sharing this kind of info between friends is easy so it went viral very quickly.
livingsocial

living social
At TokyoCamp we sat next to http://www.rainbowapps.com/http://www.rainbowapps.com/. An iPhone dev co.
On their site you can add followers who you find trustworthy information-wise. If you have similar interests, they can become a valuable source.
You could equate it to real friends who always give you great info.

.. can we apply the same theory to social app design ..
No, this is the BASIS of social app design??

Social Appli ideas are in fimilar places maybe.
In society.

Recent popular game releases on Facebook

Lots of attractive game apps have been coming out these days so we can’t really keep up or analyze all of the new ones but I will attempt to list up.

Apps made by major companies.

Poker Rivals by PlayFish
http://www.facebook.com/pokerrivals?ref=ts
501MAU (released only yesterday. It seems like it’ll get 1,000,000MAU tomorrow!)

Is this Playfish’s revenge for the success of RestaurantCity against Zynga!?

Poker Rivals is PlayFish’s version of Zynga’s hit, “Texas Hold ‘Em Poker” .
Texas Hold ‘Em Poker has been expanding and now with it’s tournaments the winners have a chance to win an XBOX 360 Elite.
On the other hand, Poker Rivals has a simple system. One of the features is it’s communication methods during play. With Texas Hold ‘Em Poker , you can have a chat with other players but with Poker Rivals , you can express your feeling using animations which so you don’t have to worry about language barriers. It also should be good for bluffing while playing poker.
poker

SuperPocus by Slide
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=137947854575&ref=ts
269,860MAU
269,860MAU

Slide hasn’t released any apps for a while. Slide was one of the major developers when Facebook first started.
SuperPocus is a PetSocial type app. Players keep pets in your room and you can change your clothes, buy furniture, visit your friends and you can also learn how to use magic or study something else. There are a number of features which make me feel immersed in the game. It’s high-quality and I’m into it!
pocus

Zoo World by RockYou!
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=167746316127
2,398,818MAU

Zoo World is their first app in a while and it is a zoo managing game. It hasn’t been completed yet but we’re waiting for the release with expectation as they are one of the major facebook developers.
zoo

Happy Pets By CrowdStar
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=127148832824
3,480,710MAU

CrowdStar is a fast-growing developer with their Happy Aquarium and Happy Pets is a pet version of Happy Aquarium. Players can have dogs and cats. The cats are absolutely adorable. The animation is realistic which makes me think what’s gonna happen if I don’t feed my pet?? Once you’ve started, you’ll feel like you have to take responsibility for its whole life.
CrowdStar hasn’t been in this arena long however they’ve grown by advertising and they are considered as a major developer.
happypets

Apps made by new developers
(“new” means “not up on high level)

Home Inn By FunTime /ShineZone
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=131728383362
1,151,426MAU

Players manage a little B&B style hotel as an owner. Players can decorate or enlarge the hotel. As they play the game, they’ll also learn real managemet in running a hotel.
homeinn

CrazyOffice By rain in rain (China)
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=79391065682
118,419MAU

Players employ their friends. The work place is a factory that makes bycicles. It has a similar system to Farmville.
crazy

Treasure Madness by zSlide
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=29518083188
1,684,760MAU

Dig a hole and hunt for treasure. This is a hybrid game – players have to clear quite a few mini games while treasure hunting. It’s a common style of game in Japan, bit like MarioParty. This company used to have lots of Flash mini games. We’re into this game now.
treasure

Kick-off by Hive7.com
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=53073376315
136,682MAU

Players orgnise a soccer team with their friends and play in a tournament online. Playing with friends is very important and choose your best positions. I wan to focus on Facebook sport games that are click controlled. There are some other developers that have released soccer games.
kick

BlingTown by Vojo World
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=173487213734
143,350MAU

Real time avatar chat with a player room and quest format to it. You start with no money and a clothing change. As you progress there are several levels where you get talked to. With lots of levels this looks like a good one, even though it’s not quite complete.
but looks like it’s not completed yet.
bling

MedicalMayhem by Vojo World
http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=104049797383
284,967MAU

Hospital managing game. its small dot art is fresh. It’s basically very similar to Farmville.
medical

Summary

It’s concerning that major game companies monopolise the market of facebook apps, but lots of new developers have been on the rise. New developers’ strategies are making apps unique and interesting.
In other words, a differentiation should be made. Such as their individual strategies;

- Add their vision of the world and replace the designs to modify existing popular apps (ex; Animal farm -> aquarium).
- Mix several basic systems such as animal farm + mob, cultivation + quest, additional mini game collision , etc)

These two are the main strategies.
Systems which are completely new are rarely seen, probably the same as the other game industries.

While major developers have been releasing new games after another, new developers have been planning carefully and releasing high quality and different apps comparable to the ones made by major developers. Wonder how they’ll go wothout advetising, on other words, with viral marketing.
If it goes well, that’ll be the proof that there’s a place for venture developers to slot into in facebook app design.

Istpika will be watching with interest.

(日本語) from Building A Business With Social Apps

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(日本語) 2009年ソーシャルアプリ業界のまとめ

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(日本語) FishVilleを攻略中。

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Infinity Ventures Summit 2009 FALL

Infinity Ventures Summit 2009 FALL I attended the IVS (InfinityVentures Summit 2009 FALL) and these are my thoughts.

This is my 2nd time attending the IVS. To tell the truth I realised for the first time that this is the IT industry. This time it was held over 2 days in Myazaki-ken’s Seagaia Resort.

ivs2009f
InfinityVenturesSummit is a conference/party for the leaders of the IT industry.
With Japan as a focus, IT industry captains or leaders all mix it up, exchange ideas, network with VC companies and report on recent findings or results. At night there’s a party where people can network. Similar to the GDC and Japan’s CEDEC for the game industry.

In a few words, it has a great atmosphere to it. read more

Tokyo Camp 2009

I headed out to Tokyo Camp 2009 held on the 6th of Nov.by Tech Crunch.
It was held at Ootemachi, 2nd floor of the Nikkei HQ. SPACE NIO
We presented a short Demo and took part in the DemoPit.
The other companies that took part were basically all from the Tech. IT industry. Other industries took part including web service providers, iPhone app developers, quite a variety.

Istpika presented a variety of projects, including BroadwayCafe.
But as Broadway Cafe has been on sale for quite a while, we didn’t explain the game but rather reported on sales and progress.
And the following information:
As an iPhone app that uses Facebook Connect, the results we have seen so far with this combination.
What kind of know how we’ve produced.
What % of people have connected.
Facebook was not popular in Japan at the time, but we are leading development now!

tc
In the TechCrunch Japan Tokyo Camp DemoPit, 29 startup companies gathered to presnt! read more

(日本語) iPhone海外マーケティングのalexa調査

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(日本語) ソーシャル性とは何か

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(日本語) Zyngaの新作、Cafe worldが最速の成長を記録、そのメーキング記事の一部翻訳と、検証

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